Premier League · Matchweek 22
Nottingham Forest
NFO
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nottm Forest30%
Draw28%
Bournemouth43%
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.46
Over 2.5
49%
Both to score
55%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nottm Forest get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession49%
34%Territory39%
30%From set plays10%
0.09Chance quality0.16
7.8%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.