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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 22

Manchester United

MUN

Liverpool

LIV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man United33%
Draw26%
Liverpool40%

Expected goals

1.39 – 1.54

Over 2.5

55%

Both to score

60%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.6%
  • 1–28.7%
  • 0–18.6%
  • 2–17.8%
  • 1–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession51%
39%Territory48%
18%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.08
4.3%Directness4.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.