Premier League · Matchweek 22
Leeds United
LEE
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leeds32%
Draw28%
Chelsea40%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.37
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leeds will have the ball; Chelsea will not mind.
56%Possession47%
34%Territory35%
42%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.10
6.2%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leeds, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.