Premier League · Matchweek 22
Arsenal
ARS
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal62%
Draw23%
Newcastle14%
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.78
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
46%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–014.0%
- 2–012.1%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–08.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arsenal get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession55%
48%Territory46%
36%From set plays16%
0.11Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.