Premier League · Matchweek 21
Manchester City
MCI
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City59%
Draw23%
Nottm Forest18%
Expected goals
1.87 – 0.97
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 0–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Nottm Forest will not mind.
65%Possession45%
49%Territory34%
20%From set plays30%
0.12Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.