Premier League · Matchweek 21
Chelsea
CHE
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea65%
Draw21%
Sunderland14%
Expected goals
2.06 – 0.88
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.4%
- 2–011.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession47%
35%Territory34%
16%From set plays51%
0.10Chance quality0.06
3.6%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.