Premier League · Matchweek 21
Aston Villa
AVL
Manchester United
MUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa43%
Draw25%
Man United32%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.42
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.5%
- 0–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession48%
32%Territory39%
22%From set plays18%
0.10Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness4.3%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Man United
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.