Premier League · Matchweek 21
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Ipswich Town
IPS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth72%
Draw16%
Ipswich12%
Expected goals
2.60 – 1.02
Over 2.5
69%
Both to score
60%
Fair handicap
-1.50
Most likely scorelines
- 2–09.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 3–18.0%
- 3–07.7%
- 1–07.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession47%
39%Territory35%
10%From set plays21%
0.16Chance quality0.12
5.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Ipswich. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.