Premier League · Matchweek 20
Manchester United
MUN
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man United54%
Draw23%
Newcastle23%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.23
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.7%
- 2–07.8%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Newcastle get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
57%Possession50%
48%Territory34%
11%From set plays38%
0.09Chance quality0.09
3.1%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.