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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 20

Manchester United

MUN

Newcastle United

NEW

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man United41%
Draw25%
Newcastle34%

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.52

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.7%
  • 2–18.7%
  • 1–27.8%
  • 1–07.3%
  • 2–26.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession55%
39%Territory46%
18%From set plays16%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.