Premier League · Matchweek 20
Leeds United
LEE
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Leeds27%
Draw25%
Man City47%
Expected goals
1.26 – 1.69
Over 2.5
56%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–19.4%
- 0–27.2%
- 2–16.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.
43%Possession65%
31%Territory44%
30%From set plays24%
0.17Chance quality0.15
5.9%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leeds, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.