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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 20

Everton

EVE

Aston Villa

AVL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Everton45%
Draw28%
Aston Villa27%

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.05

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

50%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.7%
  • 1–012.5%
  • 0–09.8%
  • 0–19.0%
  • 2–18.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aston Villa will have the ball; Everton will not mind.

41%Possession56%
40%Territory47%
27%From set plays7%
0.10Chance quality0.10
3.8%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Everton, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.