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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 20

Arsenal

ARS

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arsenal63%
Draw23%
Brentford14%

Expected goals

1.86 – 0.80

Over 2.5

49%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–013.6%
  • 2–012.0%
  • 1–110.3%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 0–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Brentford will not mind.

57%Possession48%
49%Territory39%
22%From set plays33%
0.15Chance quality0.08
3.7%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.