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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 20

Arsenal

ARS

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arsenal59%
Draw25%
Brentford16%

Expected goals

1.67 – 0.78

Over 2.5

44%

Both to score

45%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–015.0%
  • 2–011.8%
  • 1–111.1%
  • 0–09.5%
  • 2–19.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Brentford will not mind.

59%Possession47%
48%Territory35%
36%From set plays27%
0.11Chance quality0.09
3.8%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.