Premier League · Matchweek 19
Manchester City
MCI
Tottenham Hotspur
TOT
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City54%
Draw25%
Tottenham21%
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.02
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.7%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.3%
- 0–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
65%Possession71%
49%Territory52%
20%From set plays29%
0.12Chance quality0.07
3.5%Directness2.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Tottenham. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.