Premier League · Matchweek 19
Chelsea
CHE
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea49%
Draw24%
Newcastle27%
Expected goals
1.84 – 1.34
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–08.2%
- 2–06.9%
- 1–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession50%
46%Territory34%
24%From set plays38%
0.09Chance quality0.09
5.2%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.