Premier League · Matchweek 19
Chelsea
CHE
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea54%
Draw23%
Newcastle22%
Expected goals
1.94 – 1.21
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–08.8%
- 2–08.0%
- 3–16.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession55%
35%Territory46%
16%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.09
3.6%Directness4.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.