Premier League · Matchweek 19
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Bournemouth62%
Draw21%
Aston Villa17%
Expected goals
2.12 – 1.06
Over 2.5
61%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–110.0%
- 1–19.4%
- 1–09.4%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
49%Possession44%
39%Territory32%
10%From set plays22%
0.16Chance quality0.10
5.4%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Bournemouth, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.