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Premier League · Matchweek 18

Newcastle United

NEW

Nottingham Forest

NFO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Newcastle40%
Draw27%
Nottm Forest33%

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.29

Over 2.5

51%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1112.3%
  • 109.8%
  • 218.7%
  • 018.6%
  • 127.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Newcastle will have the ball; Nottm Forest will not mind.

50%Possession39%
34%Territory36%
38%From set plays19%
0.09Chance quality0.12
5.0%Directness7.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.