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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 18

Manchester United

MUN

Sunderland

SUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man United53%
Draw25%
Sunderland22%

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.11

Over 2.5

54%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.1%
  • 1–010.5%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 2–08.6%
  • 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

48%Possession47%
39%Territory34%
18%From set plays51%
0.08Chance quality0.06
4.3%Directness5.1%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.