Premier League · Matchweek 18
Ipswich Town
IPS
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ipswich30%
Draw24%
Chelsea46%
Expected goals
1.52 – 1.86
Over 2.5
64%
Both to score
67%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.1%
- 2–26.9%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Chelsea get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
46%Possession47%
38%Territory46%
8%From set plays24%
0.14Chance quality0.09
4.1%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ipswich, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.