Premier League · Matchweek 18
Ipswich Town
IPS
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ipswich23%
Draw23%
Chelsea55%
Expected goals
1.27 – 2.02
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–18.1%
- 0–27.6%
- 1–36.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession47%
35%Territory35%
21%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ipswich, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 89 matches, not the full season.