Premier League · Matchweek 18
Aston Villa
AVL
Liverpool
LIV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa32%
Draw28%
Liverpool40%
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.43
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–07.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
44%Possession51%
32%Territory48%
22%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.08
4.8%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.