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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 18

Aston Villa

AVL

Liverpool

LIV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa32%
Draw28%
Liverpool40%

Expected goals

1.23 – 1.39

Over 2.5

48%

Both to score

54%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.6%
  • 0–110.5%
  • 1–09.1%
  • 1–28.6%
  • 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

56%Possession60%
47%Territory50%
7%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.10
3.5%Directness5.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.