Premier League · Matchweek 17
Newcastle United
NEW
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle26%
Draw24%
Man City51%
Expected goals
1.34 – 1.90
Over 2.5
62%
Both to score
63%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–18.0%
- 0–27.0%
- 2–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Newcastle will not mind.
55%Possession65%
46%Territory49%
16%From set plays20%
0.09Chance quality0.12
4.9%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.