Premier League · Matchweek 17
Newcastle United
NEW
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle24%
Draw25%
Man City51%
Expected goals
1.15 – 1.73
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–28.2%
- 1–06.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Newcastle will not mind.
50%Possession65%
34%Territory44%
38%From set plays24%
0.09Chance quality0.15
5.0%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.