Premier League · Matchweek 17
Manchester United
MUN
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man United38%
Draw28%
Nottm Forest34%
Expected goals
1.38 – 1.31
Over 2.5
50%
Both to score
56%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–27.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession45%
39%Territory34%
18%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Man United
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.