Club Football Intelligence

Premier League · Matchweek 17

Sat, 26 Dec, 15:00 UTC

Ipswich Town

IPS

15:00 UTC

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Ipswich31%

Draw25%

Brentford43%

Expected goals

1.42 – 1.68

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

1–111.0%
1–29.0%
0–18.1%
2–17.4%
1–06.7%

How they playPossession, press, how they create

Brentford get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

46%Possession48%

38%Territory39%

8%From set plays33%

0.14Chance quality0.08

4.1%Directness4.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ipswich, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Ipswich

EmersonnFW1G 1A 1.03/90
Leif DavisDF2G 1A 1.00/90
Abdul FatawuFW0G 1A 0.40/90

Brentford

Kevin SchadeFW3G 0A 1.01/90
Yehor YarmoliukMF0G 1A 0.71/90
Keane Lewis-PotterDF0G 1A 0.38/90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.