Premier League · Matchweek 17
Everton
EVE
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Everton44%
Draw29%
Sunderland27%
Expected goals
1.37 – 1.04
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–010.2%
- 0–19.3%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
41%Possession45%
40%Territory40%
27%From set plays37%
0.10Chance quality0.15
3.8%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Everton, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.