Premier League · Matchweek 17
Coventry City
COV
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coventry25%
Draw24%
Chelsea51%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.88
Over 2.5
60%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–27.3%
- 2–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
40%Possession47%
37%Territory46%
34%From set plays24%
0.11Chance quality0.09
7.2%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Coventry, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Coventry
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.