Premier League · Matchweek 17
Aston Villa
AVL
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa38%
Draw29%
Leeds33%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.19
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.7%
- 2–18.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leeds will have the ball; Aston Villa will not mind.
44%Possession56%
32%Territory34%
22%From set plays42%
0.10Chance quality0.09
4.8%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.