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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 17

Aston Villa

AVL

Leeds United

LEE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Aston Villa35%
Draw28%
Leeds37%

Expected goals

1.34 – 1.38

Over 2.5

50%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–112.4%
  • 0–19.4%
  • 1–09.1%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–18.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aston Villa will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.

56%Possession43%
47%Territory31%
7%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.17
3.5%Directness5.9%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.