Premier League · Matchweek 16
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Everton
EVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nottm Forest42%
Draw28%
Everton29%
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.14
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–09.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession41%
36%Territory40%
19%From set plays27%
0.12Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Everton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.