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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 16

Chelsea

CHE

Aston Villa

AVL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Chelsea51%
Draw25%
Aston Villa24%

Expected goals

1.79 – 1.19

Over 2.5

56%

Both to score

59%

Fair handicap

-0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.9%
  • 2–19.7%
  • 1–09.7%
  • 2–08.0%
  • 1–26.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Aston Villa will have the ball; Chelsea will not mind.

47%Possession56%
46%Territory47%
24%From set plays7%
0.09Chance quality0.10
5.2%Directness3.5%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.