Premier League · Matchweek 16
Chelsea
CHE
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea57%
Draw23%
Aston Villa20%
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.11
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–08.8%
- 3–16.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession44%
35%Territory32%
16%From set plays22%
0.10Chance quality0.10
3.6%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.