Premier League · Matchweek 16
Brentford
BRE
Newcastle United
NEW
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Brentford47%
Draw26%
Newcastle28%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.25
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.5%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 2–07.2%
- 0–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
48%Possession50%
39%Territory34%
33%From set plays38%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.9%Directness5.0%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Newcastle. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.