Premier League · Matchweek 16
Arsenal
ARS
Manchester United
MUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal59%
Draw24%
Man United18%
Expected goals
1.83 – 0.93
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.1%
- 1–110.8%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 0–07.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession57%
49%Territory48%
22%From set plays11%
0.15Chance quality0.09
3.7%Directness3.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.