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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 16

Arsenal

ARS

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Arsenal66%
Draw21%
Man United13%

Expected goals

1.99 – 0.79

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

48%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–012.9%
  • 2–012.2%
  • 2–19.8%
  • 1–19.6%
  • 3–07.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Man United will not mind.

59%Possession48%
48%Territory39%
36%From set plays18%
0.11Chance quality0.08
3.8%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.