Premier League · Matchweek 15
Sunderland
SUN
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sunderland37%
Draw29%
Nottm Forest34%
Expected goals
1.28 – 1.22
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–113.0%
- 1–010.8%
- 0–110.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
45%Possession39%
40%Territory36%
37%From set plays19%
0.15Chance quality0.12
8.1%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sunderland, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.