Premier League · Matchweek 15
Sunderland
SUN
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Sunderland28%
Draw30%
Nottm Forest42%
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.28
Over 2.5
39%
Both to score
47%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–011.6%
- 1–010.2%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
47%Possession45%
34%Territory34%
51%From set plays30%
0.06Chance quality0.09
5.1%Directness7.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Sunderland, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.