Premier League · Matchweek 15
Manchester City
MCI
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City60%
Draw21%
Chelsea19%
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.15
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
61%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.3%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–17.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Chelsea will not mind.
65%Possession47%
44%Territory46%
24%From set plays24%
0.15Chance quality0.09
3.9%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.