Premier League · Matchweek 15
Manchester City
MCI
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City53%
Draw23%
Chelsea24%
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.32
Over 2.5
63%
Both to score
64%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.2%
- 2–26.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Chelsea will not mind.
65%Possession47%
49%Territory35%
20%From set plays16%
0.12Chance quality0.10
3.5%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.