Premier League · Matchweek 15
Liverpool
LIV
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool47%
Draw28%
Leeds25%
Expected goals
1.42 – 0.98
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.3%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Leeds get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
51%Possession56%
48%Territory34%
16%From set plays42%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.4%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Liverpool, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.