Premier League · Matchweek 15
Liverpool
LIV
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Liverpool46%
Draw26%
Leeds28%
Expected goals
1.66 – 1.27
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
59%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.4%
- 1–09.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 0–16.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Liverpool will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.
60%Possession43%
50%Territory31%
16%From set plays30%
0.10Chance quality0.17
5.4%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Liverpool, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.