Premier League · Matchweek 15
Coventry City
COV
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Coventry32%
Draw28%
Aston Villa40%
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.38
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.6%
- 0–110.5%
- 1–09.2%
- 1–28.6%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
37%Possession44%
39%Territory32%
29%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.10
8.9%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 4 for Coventry, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.