Premier League · Matchweek 15
Arsenal
ARS
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal62%
Draw23%
Bournemouth15%
Expected goals
1.88 – 0.85
Over 2.5
51%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.9%
- 2–011.5%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession53%
49%Territory41%
22%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.10
3.7%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.