Premier League · Matchweek 15
Arsenal
ARS
AFC Bournemouth
AFC
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal49%
Draw27%
Bournemouth23%
Expected goals
1.52 – 0.99
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
50%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.1%
- 2–09.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arsenal will have the ball; Bournemouth will not mind.
59%Possession49%
48%Territory39%
36%From set plays10%
0.11Chance quality0.16
3.8%Directness5.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Bournemouth. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.