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Premier League · Matchweek 14

Tottenham Hotspur

TOT

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Tottenham16%
Draw28%
Arsenal57%

Expected goals

0.68 – 1.48

Over 2.5

37%

Both to score

39%

Fair handicap

0.75

Most likely scorelines

  • 0117.5%
  • 0012.5%
  • 0212.2%
  • 1111.5%
  • 128.8%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Tottenham get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.

60%Possession57%
48%Territory49%
40%From set plays22%
0.07Chance quality0.15
3.9%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tottenham, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.