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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 14

Tottenham Hotspur

TOT

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Tottenham25%
Draw32%
Arsenal43%

Expected goals

0.84 – 1.16

Over 2.5

33%

Both to score

41%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–115.8%
  • 0–014.8%
  • 1–113.2%
  • 1–011.0%
  • 0–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Tottenham will have the ball; Arsenal will not mind.

71%Possession59%
52%Territory48%
29%From set plays36%
0.07Chance quality0.11
2.6%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Tottenham, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.