Premier League · Matchweek 14
Newcastle United
NEW
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle55%
Draw25%
Sunderland20%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.01
Over 2.5
52%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.6%
- 1–111.2%
- 2–19.8%
- 2–09.5%
- 0–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Sunderland get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession47%
46%Territory34%
16%From set plays51%
0.09Chance quality0.06
4.9%Directness5.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Sunderland
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.