Premier League · Matchweek 14
Newcastle United
NEW
Sunderland
SUN
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle44%
Draw28%
Sunderland28%
Expected goals
1.46 – 1.15
Over 2.5
48%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.4%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.5%
- 0–08.5%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
50%Possession45%
34%Territory40%
38%From set plays37%
0.09Chance quality0.15
5.0%Directness8.1%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Sunderland. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.