Premier League · Matchweek 14
Chelsea
CHE
Liverpool
LIV
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Chelsea46%
Draw26%
Liverpool28%
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.23
Over 2.5
53%
Both to score
58%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.7%
- 1–09.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–17.3%
- 2–07.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession51%
35%Territory48%
16%From set plays16%
0.10Chance quality0.08
3.6%Directness4.4%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Chelsea, 3 for Liverpool. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.