Premier League · Matchweek 14
Aston Villa
AVL
Crystal Palace
CRY
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa52%
Draw25%
Crystal Palace24%
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.15
Over 2.5
55%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.2%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.3%
- 0–16.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Crystal Palace get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
44%Possession39%
32%Territory27%
22%From set plays61%
0.10Chance quality0.11
4.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 3 for Crystal Palace. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Crystal Palace
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.