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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 13

Newcastle United

NEW

Manchester United

MUN

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Newcastle47%
Draw24%
Man United29%

Expected goals

1.81 – 1.41

Over 2.5

61%

Both to score

64%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–110.4%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 1–27.0%
  • 2–26.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

55%Possession48%
46%Territory39%
16%From set plays18%
0.09Chance quality0.08
4.9%Directness4.3%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Man United. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.