Premier League · Matchweek 13
Manchester City
MCI
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City60%
Draw23%
Leeds17%
Expected goals
1.91 – 0.95
Over 2.5
54%
Both to score
53%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–011.5%
- 1–110.4%
- 2–010.3%
- 2–110.0%
- 0–06.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.
65%Possession56%
49%Territory34%
20%From set plays42%
0.12Chance quality0.09
3.5%Directness6.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.