Premier League · Matchweek 13
Manchester City
MCI
Leeds United
LEE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Man City60%
Draw22%
Leeds18%
Expected goals
2.02 – 1.06
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
57%
Fair handicap
-1.00
Most likely scorelines
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.9%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–09.4%
- 3–16.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Man City will have the ball; Leeds will not mind.
65%Possession43%
44%Territory31%
24%From set plays30%
0.15Chance quality0.17
3.9%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man City, 3 for Leeds. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.