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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 13

Hull City

HUL

Nottingham Forest

NFO

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Hull29%
Draw30%
Nottm Forest40%

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.24

Over 2.5

39%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–113.3%
  • 0–113.0%
  • 0–011.7%
  • 1–010.6%
  • 1–28.2%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nottm Forest will have the ball; Hull will not mind.

35%Possession45%
29%Territory34%
38%From set plays30%
0.08Chance quality0.09
7.3%Directness7.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Hull, 3 for Nottm Forest. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.