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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 13

Brentford

BRE

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brentford24%
Draw29%
Arsenal48%

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.40

Over 2.5

41%

Both to score

47%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–114.1%
  • 1–112.7%
  • 0–010.9%
  • 0–29.1%
  • 1–28.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Brentford will not mind.

47%Possession59%
35%Territory48%
27%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.11
6.4%Directness3.8%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.