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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 13

Brentford

BRE

Arsenal

ARS

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Brentford22%
Draw27%
Arsenal52%

Expected goals

0.95 – 1.56

Over 2.5

45%

Both to score

49%

Fair handicap

0.50

Most likely scorelines

  • 0–113.2%
  • 1–112.0%
  • 0–29.6%
  • 1–29.5%
  • 0–09.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Arsenal will have the ball; Brentford will not mind.

48%Possession57%
39%Territory49%
33%From set plays22%
0.08Chance quality0.15
4.9%Directness3.7%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Brentford, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.