Premier League · Matchweek 13
Aston Villa
AVL
Everton
EVE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Aston Villa48%
Draw27%
Everton25%
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.03
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
51%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–012.4%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–09.0%
- 2–08.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Too early to characterise either side — these are the numbers so far, not a read on how they play.
44%Possession45%
32%Territory43%
22%From set plays35%
0.10Chance quality0.07
4.8%Directness5.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Aston Villa, 2 for Everton. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Everton
No regular with a goal involvement yet.
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.