Premier League · Matchweek 12
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nottm Forest40%
Draw26%
Chelsea34%
Expected goals
1.59 – 1.44
Over 2.5
57%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–08.1%
- 1–27.8%
- 0–17.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
39%Possession47%
36%Territory46%
19%From set plays24%
0.12Chance quality0.09
7.8%Directness5.2%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.