Premier League · Matchweek 12
Nottingham Forest
NFO
Chelsea
CHE
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Nottm Forest33%
Draw28%
Chelsea38%
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.35
Over 2.5
47%
Both to score
54%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.7%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–09.5%
- 0–08.6%
- 1–28.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
45%Possession47%
34%Territory35%
30%From set plays16%
0.09Chance quality0.10
7.8%Directness3.6%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Nottm Forest, 3 for Chelsea. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.