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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 12

Manchester United

MUN

Brentford

BRE

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Man United38%
Draw26%
Brentford36%

Expected goals

1.53 – 1.50

Over 2.5

57%

Both to score

62%

Fair handicap

0.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.3%
  • 2–18.3%
  • 1–28.2%
  • 1–07.8%
  • 0–17.6%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

48%Possession47%
39%Territory35%
18%From set plays27%
0.08Chance quality0.09
4.3%Directness6.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Man United, 3 for Brentford. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.