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Premier League · Matchweek 12

Leeds United

LEE

Coventry City

COV

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Leeds62%
Draw21%
Coventry17%

Expected goals

2.06 – 1.02

Over 2.5

59%

Both to score

56%

Fair handicap

-1.00

Most likely scorelines

  • 1010.1%
  • 2110.0%
  • 209.8%
  • 119.7%
  • 316.9%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

43%Possession40%
31%Territory37%
30%From set plays34%
0.17Chance quality0.11
5.9%Directness7.2%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Leeds, 3 for Coventry. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.