Premier League · Matchweek 12
Ipswich Town
IPS
Aston Villa
AVL
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Ipswich35%
Draw26%
Aston Villa40%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.58
Over 2.5
58%
Both to score
62%
Fair handicap
0.00
Most likely scorelines
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.9%
- 0–17.9%
- 1–07.3%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
47%Possession44%
35%Territory32%
21%From set plays22%
0.12Chance quality0.10
4.8%Directness4.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Ipswich, 3 for Aston Villa. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.