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Task EnterprisesClub FootballIntelligence
Live2015–2016

Premier League · Matchweek 12

Crystal Palace

CRY

Hull City

HUL

Model

Match forecast

Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.

Crystal Palace45%
Draw26%
Hull29%

Expected goals

1.57 – 1.24

Over 2.5

52%

Both to score

57%

Fair handicap

-0.25

Most likely scorelines

  • 1–111.9%
  • 1–09.9%
  • 2–19.2%
  • 0–17.6%
  • 2–07.0%
How they playPossession, press, how they create

Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.

37%Possession30%
30%Territory33%
11%From set plays10%
0.11Chance quality0.09
5.4%Directness8.4%

Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Crystal Palace, 3 for Hull. Too few to lean on heavily.

Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90

Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.