Premier League · Matchweek 12
Arsenal
ARS
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal46%
Draw28%
Man City26%
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.07
Over 2.5
46%
Both to score
52%
Fair handicap
-0.25
Most likely scorelines
- 1–112.5%
- 1–012.0%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–08.9%
- 0–18.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arsenal get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
59%Possession65%
48%Territory49%
36%From set plays20%
0.11Chance quality0.12
3.8%Directness3.5%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.