Premier League · Matchweek 12
Arsenal
ARS
Manchester City
MCI
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Arsenal47%
Draw28%
Man City25%
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.99
Over 2.5
43%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
-0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 1–013.1%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–010.0%
- 2–19.1%
- 0–18.7%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Nothing in the numbers separates these two by much — which is itself worth knowing, and more common than most previews admit.
57%Possession65%
49%Territory44%
22%From set plays24%
0.15Chance quality0.15
3.7%Directness3.9%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Arsenal, 3 for Man City. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.