Premier League · Matchweek 11
Newcastle United
NEW
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle19%
Draw26%
Arsenal55%
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.62
Over 2.5
45%
Both to score
48%
Fair handicap
0.75
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.8%
- 1–111.7%
- 0–210.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–09.1%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Newcastle get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
50%Possession57%
34%Territory49%
38%From set plays22%
0.09Chance quality0.15
5.0%Directness3.7%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 26 of 40 matches, not the full season.