Premier League · Matchweek 11
Newcastle United
NEW
Arsenal
ARS
Model
Match forecast
Bivariate-Poisson goal model, from current strength ratings and home advantage.
Newcastle22%
Draw27%
Arsenal51%
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.53
Over 2.5
44%
Both to score
49%
Fair handicap
0.50
Most likely scorelines
- 0–113.5%
- 1–112.2%
- 0–29.6%
- 0–09.5%
- 1–29.4%
How they playPossession, press, how they create
Arsenal get an unusual share of their chances from set plays.
55%Possession59%
46%Territory48%
16%From set plays36%
0.09Chance quality0.11
4.9%Directness3.8%
Averages over the matches this snapshot has detail for — 3 for Newcastle, 3 for Arsenal. Too few to lean on heavily.
Players to watchMost goal involvement per 90
Arsenal
Goal involvements per 90, among players with at least 45% of the most-used player’s minutes. Drawn from the last 27 of 89 matches, not the full season.